The hydro-only energy stream is not reconciled with the IESO’s own August 2025 modelling.
The LLT energy stream is restricted to new hydroelectric resources, yet the IESO’s own August 2025 Hybrid Resource Portfolio Equivalency Assessment found that wind/solar/BESS portfolios served 99.5%–99.98% of the peaky-need scenario and 99.7%–99.9% of the baseload-need scenario, and that a gas + wind/solar/BESS portfolio served 100% of load at a lower net present value than the gas-only option in seven of ten weather years. The IESO has not publicly reconciled that modelling with a decision to create an exclusive 40-year procurement lane for new hydro, together with the new transmission required to connect those projects to the grid. Citing the Directive does not discharge the IESO’s public-interest obligation to show that new hydro is necessary, least-cost and superior to lower-risk alternatives.
Nor has the IESO published any comparable analysis testing new hydro against wind, solar and BESS portfolios; the reconciliation gap is therefore wider, not narrower.