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Photo by Linda HeronPhoto Credit

IESO: Annual Planning Outlook Demand Forecast and Demand Scenarios – November 18, 2025

The Chute, First Falls, Ivanhoe River – Photo by Mark Clement

Ontario must also stop treating hydroelectric generation as beneficial electrification or a low-carbon resource. Hydropower is not a climate solution — it is a significant and worsening source of greenhouse gas emissions. Small hydro facilities under 10 MW, with their shallow, slow-moving reservoirs, emit large quantities of methane, often comparable to the lifecycle emissions of natural gas plants. These emissions are amplified by the peaking operations required to make small-river projects economically viable: daily water-level fluctuations repeatedly wet and dry the littoral zone, accelerating decomposition and triggering intense methane release when the sediments are reflooded. As temperatures rise and nutrient-rich sediments continue to accumulate behind dams, methane production continues to increase. Far from providing climate benefits, Ontario’s small hydro fleet is fueling climate change, not mitigating it.

Relying on hydropower to “offset” a corporation’s or industry’s electricity use is carbon disinformation and a growing liability. Claiming that reservoir-based hydro is “clean” or “low-emitting” and issuing or purchasing clean energy credits based on that claim misrepresents the science and misleads the public. In ORA’s view, presenting methane-emitting hydropower as a climate solution borders on fraudulent.

The only genuinely low-carbon, scalable tools capable of supporting Beneficial Electrification are wind, solar, battery storage, and conservation.